Opinion

Opinion and Analysis: Rough waters ahead in the South China Sea?

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Philippe Healey takes soundings on the fall-out from the recent ruling on the dispute between the Philippines and China over claims to The South China Sea

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On July 12th, the Tribunal of the UN convention of the law of the sea (UNCLOS) issued a much-anticipated ruling on the Philippines’ South China Sea case against China. The ruling was overwhelmingly in favour of the Philippines, declaring some of China’s expansionary tactics in the region illegal.

Many commentators have described the ruling as one of most significant geopolitical events in years, and while the decision was firm and to the point, it nonetheless opens up a whole new set of questions and challenges.

Reactions and what to expect from China and the Philippines

The spotlight is now on China and the Philippines with concerns surrounding any actions from either side potentially sparking a major incident.

Having refused to participate in the arbitration, the aftermath of the ruling saw China respond by issuing a statement via its Foreign Ministry which stated that  “The award is null and void and has no binding force, (…) China neither accepts nor recognises it.” Beijing “does not accept any means of third party dispute settlement or any solution imposed on China,” it added. Meanwhile, underscoring China’s position on the ruling, state media said that two new airports in the Spratlys, on Mischief Reef and Subi Reef, both received test flights from civilian aircraft on Wednesday. That same day, Beijing called the Philippines’ claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea “baseless” and an “act of bad faith”.

However, as The Diplomat noted ‘it’s worth taking stock of what China didn’t do…Beijing has not declared an air defense identification zone in the South China Sea, moved to begin reclamation at Scarborough Shoal, sanctioned the Philippines, or announced an intent to withdraw from the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Additionally, China’s state censorship apparatus has apparently moved to censor hypernationalist calls for war, demonstrating state interest in putting a lid on nationalist outbursts.’

So all things considered (including China’s major loss of face in the international arena) the reaction in Beijing has been relatively low key. One reason for this is perhaps because there’s a sense in Beijing that the new powers in place in Manilla under new President Rodrigo Duterte have shown signs of a renewed willingness to solve the issue through bilateral negotiations or even shift the focus back to economic cooperation. However the ruling may now limit the negotiation space between the two countries even though the Philippines’ reacted cautiously to the ruling late on Tuesday, calling for “restraint and sobriety”.

Implications beyond Beijing and Manila

The ruling also has implications beyond just Beijing and Manila, with now fresh question marks as to how other claimants and countries with interest in the region may react. Taiwan, who broadly speaking has the same claims as China, also rejected the tribunal’s decision and promptly decided to send a patrol ship in the contested waters to ‘display the Taiwan people’s resolve in defending the national interest,” Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said. It is also worth questioning how might regional actors such as Malaysia or Indonesia react and whether they will feel emboldened by the ruling and also decide to follow in Manilla’s footsteps and take China to court or whether they will seek a more diplomatic approach in the face of mounting tension in the region.

Meanwhile ‘the U.S. is using quiet diplomacy to persuade the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and other Asian nations not to move aggressively to capitalize on an international court ruling’ as reported by Reuters, whoquoted a number of US diplomats under conditions of anonymity.

For China, As Michael H Fuchs, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs put it in The Guardian, ‘the choice is whether to modify its policies, or continue them in direct contravention of international law. The question for the Philippines, the United States and many other nations, meanwhile, will be how to respond in a way that supports the ruling and makes it more likely that China will choose to peacefully resolve the disputes.”

How this both is impacted by and impacts the upcoming ASEAN meeting and G20 summit to be held in China will certainly be worth watching out for.

Screenshot 2016-07-18 23.56.04Philippe Healey is a member of Hill+Knowlton Strategies Government & Public Affairs Team in Beijing